Time's Push Polling, MoE Fudging, Straw Grasping Subterfuge

Today's Vocabulary Lesson:

Push Polling- forcing respondents to make a choice based on a hypothetical question; for example: during the 2000 election primary season, poll respondents were asked, "Would you support Senator McCain if you knew he had a black baby?"

Time Poll conducted by SRBI Public Affairs. Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 2004. N=1,128 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3), 926 likely voters (MoE ± 4).


"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans. For whom would you vote?" If undecided: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Kerry or Bush?

Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Other(vol.)/Unsure

Among likely voters:
8/31 - 9/2/04
53 43 1 3

8/24-26/04*
46 46 - 7

8/3-5/04
44 51 1 4

7/20-22/04
46 50 1 3

Among registered voters:
8/31 - 9/2/04
50 42 1 7

8/3-5/04
43 51 1 5

7/20-22/04
45 50 1 4

* Excludes leaners

Even after push polling undecideds, the MoE (Margin of Error) is still +/- 4%, which means that the actual result is probably in line with every other reputable poll conducted during the same time period:

Likely Voters
Bush 49% Kerry 47%

Registered Voters
Bush 46% Kerry 46%


Grasping at straws, BushCo?