Monday, November 08, 2004

Story Problems...


... The stuff of the math anxiety sufferer's nightmare.


Multiplication is vexation,
Division is just as bad;
The Rule of Three perplexes me,
And Practice drives me mad.

– Old Rhyme



Solve the following:

Imagine that you lived in a county that had 30,000 registered voters, of whom 10,000 were registered as Democrats, 10,000 as Republicans, and 10,000 as independents. Suppose you further knew that polls had shown that 91% of Republicans planned to vote for the Republican, and 88% of Democrats planned to vote for the Democrat. Among the independents, 60% planned to vote for the Democrat. (Less than 1% of all voters planned to vote for third party candidates in this scenario.) We’ll pretend that 100% of these voters actually voted, although in reality, the turnout would have been closer to 75%.

No brainer, right?

Given that data, you would expect a fairly sizeable win for the Democrat. If the polls were accurate (and exit polls are VERY accurate, to within one half of one percent of the actual vote totals), then the Democrat would have gotten 8,800 votes from Democratic voters, about 900 from Republican voters, and 6,000 from independents, giving him 15,700 votes to 14,300 votes for the Republican.

After class, when you compare answers and discover that a few students think you must be learning impaired...

If you looked in your paper the next day and saw that the Republican won, you might be surprised.. Typically, 7% of voters actually decide in the last day, which is why polls are sometimes off by up to 3%. But exit polls interview people who have already decided.

If you learned that the Republican got 22,000 votes and the Democrat just 8,000, you might be very suspicious.

This is what happened in Florida. It didn’t happen in just one county. It happened in a large number of counties, and the discrepancy between the vote totals and the voting demographics is far bigger and more egregious than my fictional example above. LINK

When you get your test paper back with a big red F on it, do you...


A. Bitch and complain loudly (forever guaranteeing your academic Bad Attitude label)?


B. Seethe with anger (but say nothing because you saw what happened to the kid who bitched and complained loudly)?


C. Rip it to shreds (and decide to cheat next time)?


D. Sob quietly and ask the teacher what you did wrong?


Correct Answer:


D.
Your teacher now realizes that you have a healthy respect for authority!
As a reward for your self-deprecating candor,
The Marvin Bush Mathematical Test Grading Company® suggests that you and your parents take advantage of one of their many Neil Bush Remedial Math Study Guides®, offered directly through your school at the low, low price of $29.99 + shipping and handling!



Heavy sigh.


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