The Sky Is Not Falling! And here's why...

Kos explains it all for you, but be sure to check my post script, too!

From The Daily Kos: A diary for those about to commit suicide
by Chris Bowers
Thu Aug 26th, 2004 at 03:36:23 GMT

Sweet merciful crap. Reading the thread about the latest LA Times poll, I thought it was November 6, 2002 around here all over again (or January 20, 2004). And to think that just two days ago a post-SBL Zogby poll showed Kerry leading in 14 out the 16 closest states. To think that within the last week, two polls have shown the race tied--in Colorado after the SBVfT. To think that a post SBVfT Economist poll today showed Bush with an approval rating double-digits in the red, and direction of the country numbers more than twenty points in the red. To think that even Real Clear Politics shows Kerry up by 3.4--and they use the LV models that are consistently pro-Bush whenever possible.

Listen up you soup-spined, knee-knocking numbnuts: no matter how much you seem to enjoy panicking, Bush's poll numbers suck, and it is time for you to learn to deal with it. The LA Times is definitely not a pro-Dem poll. In fact, their job approval ratings for Bush, both national and statewide, are easily the most pro-GOP of any other outfit. Hell, in July, they had Bush at 56/40 approve / disapprove in Florida. Even in the June poll that supposedly was biased toward Kerry, Bush's approval rating was 51/47 pre-Reagan, the second highest he had the entire month of June.

How can anyone call the LA Times, in all of is four glorious datapoints, a pro-Dem poll because exactly one of its datapoints--from June--showed Kerry up six? That defies all reasonable explanation. Even further, how can anyone think Kerry is doomed because one poll shows Bush under 50 and Kerry within the MoE? Incumbents lose in that position far more often than they win. So, even Bush's good news still favors Kerry!

Diaries :: Chris Bowers's diary ::
In 156 out of 180 polls taken in AZ, AR, CO, FL, MO, NV, NH, NC, OH, TN, VA and WV since Super Tuesday, Bush is under 50. Bush's trial heat average from the last five polls from each of these states shows him under 50, and Kerry either leading or within the MoE. In 2000, Bush won all twelve of these states, worth 136 EV's, and right now he is in danger in all of them.

Don't forget!

When polls cite "likely voters," they never tell you that the millions of "disenfranchised voters" (from election day 2000) are NOT COUNTED as being "likely voters."

Oh sure, they voted... or tried to vote...
But their votes didn't count.

"likely Voter" lists contain the names and contact info of ONLY THOSE VOTERS whose votes were actually counted in the 2000 presidential election.